A new analysis suggests Floridians who purchased homes in 2023 entered the market at its most difficult point since the last housing crisis. Higher mortgage rates, cooling prices and competition from builders have left many recent buyers at risk of losing money when they sell, particularly in Northeast Florida.
Key takeaways
- St. Johns County recorded Florida’s highest share of resale losses among the homeowners studied, at 70.6%.
- Flagler County followed closely, with 70.3% of analyzed sellers losing money.
- More than 2.3 million Florida properties were reviewed using historical sale records.
- The analysis estimated that buying and selling costs reduced returns by about 8%.
- Purchases made in 2006 performed worst overall, while 2020 appeared to be the safest year to buy.
The findings describe homes that have already been resold, rather than every property purchased in 2022 or 2023. Homeowners who remain in place may eventually recover their costs if prices rise or they hold the property long enough.
Northeast Florida counties see steep losses
Recent buyers in several Northeast Florida counties faced substantial losses when they sold. St. Johns County led the state, followed by Flagler County. The analysis also found losses among sellers in Clay, Nassau and Duval counties.
| County | Share of analyzed sellers who lost money |
|---|---|
| St. Johns | 70.6% |
| Flagler | 70.3% |
| Clay | 55.3% |
| Nassau | 54.2% |
| Duval | 52.9% |
The figures account for estimated transaction expenses, which can include costs associated with purchasing, selling and closing a property. Those expenses mean a home may need to appreciate significantly before an owner breaks even.
New construction adds pressure
Builders offering incentives such as mortgage-rate buy-downs are creating additional competition for existing homes. Buyers may favor new properties that come with financing assistance or other concessions, forcing owners of older homes to lower prices or accept smaller gains.
That pressure is particularly visible in fast-growing parts of St. Johns County, where resale homes built between 2010 and 2018 may compete directly with newly constructed properties nearby.
Pandemic-era buyers face a changed market
Florida home prices climbed sharply during the pandemic-era boom, with annual increases reaching double digits in some areas. Many buyers expected that momentum to continue, but the market later cooled as mortgage rates rose and affordability weakened.
People who bought near the market’s peak can now find that their home’s estimated value does not cover the original purchase price plus selling expenses. Some owners may also owe more than they would net from a sale, a situation commonly described as being underwater.
2006 remains the weakest purchase year overall
The review examined sales dating back to 2001, allowing researchers to compare outcomes across multiple market cycles. Homes purchased in 2006 had the poorest results: 85.8% of those later resold produced a loss after estimated transaction costs.
By contrast, 2020 was identified as the strongest purchase year in the analysis. Conditions worsened each year afterward, culminating in 2023’s particularly weak results for recent buyers.
What the findings mean for homeowners
The analysis does not mean every person who bought in 2023 will lose money. Results depend on the purchase price, neighborhood, property condition, loan balance and length of ownership. Owners who can remain in their homes longer may have more time to benefit from future price growth and offset transaction costs.
For buyers and sellers, the findings underscore the importance of evaluating mortgage payments, resale competition and closing expenses—not just headline home prices—before making a move.