Florida’s once red-hot housing market is undergoing a significant transformation, moving away from the intense seller’s market of recent years. Inventory levels, which had been steadily climbing, are now showing signs of decline, while new listings are decreasing and more sellers are withdrawing their properties. This shift indicates a market rebalancing, offering potential relief for buyers.
Key Takeaways
- Inventory decline is driven by seller withdrawals and fewer new listings, not necessarily increased sales.
- Four major Florida cities—Miami, Orlando, Jacksonville, and Tampa—have transitioned to buyer-friendly markets.
- While prices are down year-over-year, affordability remains a challenge due to past price surges outpacing wage growth.
- The market is rebalancing, not crashing, with a move towards more realistic price points.
A Market in Transition
The Florida housing market, characterized by a construction boom and pandemic-fueled demand, saw inventory soar. However, the conditions that drove that demand—low mortgage rates, remote work, and migration—have shifted. This led to a pileup of homes on the market as buyers faced affordability challenges and economic uncertainty. For 110 consecutive weeks, inventory in Florida had consistently risen. Now, this trend has reversed, with inventory declining from its spring peaks. This is attributed not to seasonal factors but to a significant increase in sellers withdrawing their listings, suggesting they are unwilling to sell at current prices.
The Rise of the Buyer’s Market
Several major Florida cities are now considered buyer-friendly. Miami leads with 9.7 months of supply, followed by Orlando (7.0 months), and Jacksonville and Tampa (both 6.3 months). Generally, over six months of supply indicates a buyer’s market. This abundance of homes for sale, with many properties staying on the market longer, gives buyers more negotiation power. While prices have seen year-over-year declines, the overall cost of housing remains significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, making affordability a persistent issue for many Floridians.
Signs of Rebalancing, Not a Crash
Experts emphasize that this market shift is a correction and rebalancing, not a crash. The increase in inventory and subsequent decline in prices have put downward pressure on the market. However, the gap between the salary needed to afford a home and the median income in Florida remains substantial. While home values are falling, the required income to purchase a home is still considerably higher than before the pandemic. Future price declines are anticipated, but a return to pre-pandemic affordability levels is unlikely in the short term. Factors like hurricane risks and rising insurance costs continue to influence the market, but the overall sentiment points towards a more sustainable and realistic middle ground for both buyers and sellers.
Sources
- Florida housing market changes direction, Newsweek.
- Florida’s housing market was skewed wildly by the pandemic. It’s finally coming to grips with a ‘realistic
middle ground’, Fortune. - Near America’s worst housing market, Florida real estate experts see signs of life, Fox Business.
- Florida Housing Market Trends: 4 Cities Turn Buyer-Friendly in 2025, Norada Real Estate Investments.
- Florida’s Housing Market Has ‘Flipped’ for Homebuyers, Newsweek.