Florida’s housing market, after a period of cooling in 2025, is anticipating a rebound in 2026. Lower mortgage rates, sustained population influx, and a potential increase in international buyer activity are key factors expected to drive renewed momentum. While challenges remain, particularly in the condo market, the overall outlook suggests a more balanced and active market.
Key Takeaways
- Easing mortgage rates are expected to improve affordability and encourage more buyers.
- Continued strong population growth is a primary driver for sustained housing demand.
- The condo market faces ongoing adjustments due to post-Surfside reforms and rising fees.
- Luxury real estate is expected to remain robust, though some experts caution about potential pullbacks.
- Affordable housing initiatives may begin to accelerate development.
2025: A Year of Adjustment
In 2025, Florida’s housing market experienced a slowdown. Single-family homes saw little price growth, while the condo market faced challenges, including falling prices and increased inventory, partly due to reforms following the Surfside collapse that led to higher fees and special assessments. However, by year’s end, lower prices and decreasing mortgage rates began to stabilize the condo market.
2026 Outlook: Tailwinds for the Market
The forecast for 2026 is more optimistic, with several factors turning into tailwinds. Mortgage rates are projected to continue their descent, with the Miami Realtors Association predicting a 30-year fixed rate around 5.8% by the end of the year. This reduction in borrowing costs is expected to significantly lower monthly payments for homebuyers and encourage existing homeowners to sell.
Florida’s population growth remains a powerful engine for the housing market. Projections indicate the state will add approximately 305,953 new residents annually between 2026 and 2030, translating to about 838 new residents each day. This consistent influx fuels demand for both sales and rentals.
Condo Market Dynamics
The South Florida condo market continues to navigate complexities. While older buildings face scrutiny and higher fees due to post-Surfside reforms, newer luxury condos are performing well. Some experts predict a potential crash in the broader condo market due to escalating costs, while others see opportunities for buyers in well-priced older units as associations become more transparent. Condo association terminations and new construction of higher-end properties are also expected trends.
Luxury and Affordable Housing
The luxury real estate market in South Florida is anticipated to remain strong, driven by the region’s appeal to entrepreneurs and high-net-worth individuals. Major events and developments are expected to attract buyers. However, some analysts express caution, citing potential pullbacks due to return-to-office mandates and a lack of "step-up buyers."
On the affordable housing front, the Live Local Act is expected to spur more development in 2026, offering incentives to developers who include a significant portion of affordable units. Interest in "attainable" housing, including smaller "micro units," is also growing, particularly in desirable neighborhoods.
Rental Market
Despite a surge in apartment construction, demand in the rental market remains high due to population growth and the high cost of homeownership. Competition for rentals is intense, with a significant number of interested renters for each vacant apartment.
Commercial Real Estate
South Florida’s commercial real estate market has shown resilience. Vacancy rates are lower than the national average, and new construction is strong, with much of the space already leased, supported by a growing job market.
Sources
- Lower interest rates help brighten the outlook for South Florida real estate in 2026, WLRN.
- Florida housing market pauses in 2025, prepares for rebound | Real Estate, Gulfshore Business.
- Florida Housing Market Predictions for the Next 5 Years: 2026 to 2030, Norada Real Estate Investments.
- Here’s what to expect in South Florida’s luxury real estate market in 2026, Tampa Bay Times.
- Outlook for South Florida real estate market in 2026, Miami Herald.