Hillsborough County: A Political Landscape Transformed

Hillsborough County’s political climate has vastly changed from 2018 to 2022, transitioning from a strong Democratic base to a significantly Republican stronghold.

A Brief History of Political Shifts

• 2018:

  • Voters in Hillsborough flipped key state House and Senate seats along with County Commission seats from Republican to Democratic, granting the Democrats their first Commission majority since 2004.
  • Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson garnered significant support despite narrowly losing their statewide races.
• 2020:
  • Joe Biden won the county with 53% against Donald Trump’s 46%, even as he lost the overall state vote.
  • Democrats expanded their County Commission majority to 5-2 and claimed nearly all countywide races except for Sheriff.

Despite early Democratic successes, the narrative shifted dramatically by 2022.

The Turning Tide in 2022

In a surprising reversal, moderate Republicans Josh Wostal and Donna Cameron Cepeda unseated incumbent Democrats, leading to a Republican majority on the County Commission. This marked a significant change, as Republicans not only secured the county for Governor and Senator but also dominated all major statewide offices and legislative contests.

Key Questions Ahead of the Polls

With the elections approaching, a critical question remains: Which Hillsborough County will show up at the polls — the blue-style voters from 2018 and 2020 or the red resurgence witnessed in 2022?

• Carmen Edmonds, chair of the County Republican Party, confidently claimed that “the people who will show up on Tuesday will be the Republicans from 2022.”
• Ione Townsend, the Democratic Chair, remarked that while they had a significant voter registration advantage in 2018, today the difference is minimal, just around 5,000 votes.

Voter Turnout Dynamics

Democratic voter turnout notably declined in the 2022 elections, dropping to 52% compared to 78% in 2020. Townsend believes that the presence of Vice President Kamala Harris on the ballot, coupled with hot-button issues such as abortion rights and recreational marijuana, could mobilize Democratic voters.

Factors Influencing Voter Engagement

• Democratic Enthusiasm: Recent volunteer increases post-Harris’s candidacy could bolster turnout.
• Declining Active Voter Numbers: There has been a substantial decrease in active Democratic voters, though many may still participate this year.

Upcoming Elections and Key Races

The upcoming elections are poised to test the new political dynamics in various key races:

State Attorney: Suzy Lopez vs. Andrew Warren

• Background: Andrew Warren, previously removed by Governor Ron DeSantis for his stance on abortion laws, has become a Democratic symbol. Conversely, Suzy Lopez has garnered significant backing, particularly from police unions.
• Funding: Lopez has raised $1.2 million compared to Warren’s $762,379.

Countywide County Commissioner: Chris Boles vs. Sean Shaw

• Importance: This race is critical for Democrats as they seek to regain a stronghold in the Board of Commissioners.
• Candidates: Boles is linked to the firefighters’ union, while Shaw has a history of involvement in local governance.

School Tax Referendum

A proposed 1 mill tax increase aims to address a serious teacher shortage. However, opposition from Republican commissioners and real estate developers has complicated its support.

Community Investment Tax

A referendum to renew the Community Investment Tax, crucial for funding infrastructure and public services, is also on the ballot. This tax has seen resistance despite its importance for local municipalities.

State House: Ashley Brundage vs. Karen Gonzalez Pittman

• Context: Democrat Ashley Brundage is challenging Republican incumbent Karen Gonzalez Pittman for a seat with a substantial Republican advantage.
• Competitive Landscape: Despite Polling showing challenges, significant funding from the Republican Party indicates a focus on retaining this seat.

Constitutional Officers and School Board Races

Three Democratic constitutional officers are up for reelection against Republican challengers, while a non-partisan school board race is highlighting partisan divisions, particularly over teacher salary taxes.

U.S. House: Kathy Castor vs. Rocky Rochford

• Background: Incumbent Rep. Kathy Castor faces Republican Rocky Rochford, who emphasizes border security issues. Historically, Castor has enjoyed strong voter support despite redistricting efforts designed to consolidate Democratic voters.

Conclusion

The 2022 elections in Hillsborough County could signify a pivotal moment in Florida’s political landscape. As early voting begins, the outcomes in these closely contested races will likely reveal the current sentiments of the electorate, further shaping the future political environment of this critical region.

For ongoing updates on the voting process and to explore further details, check out resources like Ballotpedia for information on candidates and proposals.