Southeast Florida Housing Outlook: Projections for 2026

A Positive Forecast for Home Sales

According to MIAMI Realtors®’ latest projections, a variety of factors are set to drive a resurgence in Southeast Florida’s housing market by 2026, including declining mortgage rates, a substantial increase in the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap, and a new condominium law designed to alleviate homeowner financial burdens.

Key Drivers for Market Rebound

• Declining Mortgage Rates: MIAMI Realtors® forecasts mortgage rates will decline to 6.4% by the end of 2025 and further to 5.8% by the end of 2026. This shift is expected to enhance affordability for potential homebuyers.

• SALT Deduction Cap Increase: The SALT deduction cap is set to rise from $10,000 to $40,000, considerably benefiting homeowners in high-property-value areas, like Miami. This new cap will incentivize itemizing deductions, offering an annual savings of approximately $3,600 for qualifying households.

• New Condo Law (HB 913): Enacted in June 2025, this law introduces several measures aimed at easing financial pressure for condo owners. Notable provisions include:
  • Allowing associations to utilize lines of credit for reserve obligations, contingent on owner approval.
  • A two-year temporary pause in reserve funding following a significant inspection.
  • Increasing the threshold for repairs considered in the Structural Integrity Reserve Study (SIRS) from $10,000 to $25,000.

These reforms will provide crucial relief to condominium owners, making the market more attractive.

Detailed Sales Projections for 2025-2026

Single-Family Home Sales

• Expected to decline by 8.1% in 2025, followed by a rebound of 5.6% in 2026.
• The projected monthly mortgage payment for homes sold at the median price with a 10% down payment is anticipated to drop by $100, from $3,500 in 2025 to $3,400 in 2026.
• Consequently, the income necessary to afford a mortgage will decrease from $168,000 in 2025 to $163,200 in 2026.
• The number of renter households able to purchase a home is expected to rise from 139,900 to 164,500.

Condominium/Townhome Market

• Sales are projected to fall 24.5% in 2025, but relief from HB 913 may mitigate these declines in 2026.
• Median prices are expected to stabilize after a 1% decline in 2025.

Price Projections

• Single-Family Homes: Prices are expected to rise modestly by 2% in 2025 and accelerate to a 4% increase by 2026.
• Condominiums/Townhomes: After a forecasted decline in prices for 2025, values are expected to stabilize in 2026.

Inventory Levels

• The single-family market will maintain a balanced inventory, with about 6.6 months of supply at the end of 2025 and 6.4 months at the end of 2026.
• In the condominium market, inventory is projected to increase from 10 months’ supply in 2025 to 12 months’ supply in 2026.

Conclusion

As we look ahead to 2026, numerous factors indicate that Southeast Florida’s housing market is on the verge of recovery. By leveraging a decline in mortgage rates, an improved SALT deduction cap, and supportive legislative changes for condo owners, the region is poised for a brighter real estate landscape.

For a comprehensive look at the 2025-2026 housing outlook, download the official Southeast Florida Housing Outlook report here.

This article encapsulates the latest insights and projections from MIAMI Realtors®, shedding light on the expected trends and opportunities within the Southeast Florida housing market. Stay informed as we navigate these changing landscapes together!