Northeast Florida Housing Market Stagnates in June Amid Rising Inventory and Declining Sales

The housing market in Northeast Florida experienced a notable pause in June 2025, with the median price of single-family homes remaining steady at $389,000. This figure mirrors the previous month’s level but marks a 4% decline compared to June 2024, signaling subtle market adjustments as the once red-hot real estate environment cools down.

Median Home Prices Hold Flat After Peak in May

• Current Median Price: $389,000
• May 2025 Peak: $403,000 (highest in at least 12 months)
• Year-over-Year Decline: 4% from June 2024 levels

According to the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR), the price plateau suggests buyer caution, which contrasts with the price increases recorded during earlier phases of the post-pandemic boom.

Inventory Hits Highest Level in Five Years

One of the most significant shifts in June was the expansion of available homes for sale:

• Active Listings: Increased by 4.1%, from 8,778 in May to 9,135 in June
• Five-Year High: This inventory level is the highest recorded in recent memory

The surge in listings offers buyers more options but also signals easing pressure on home prices as competition among sellers softens.

Sales Activity Declines Despite More Homes on Market

While more homes are available, demand has tapered:

• Closed Sales: Fell by 3.5%, descending from 2,035 in May to 1,963 in June
• Pending Sales: Drastically dropped by 34.2% compared to the previous month

This decline in transactions reflects buyer hesitation amid increasing choices and possibly higher borrowing costs, contributing to a more balanced marketplace.

Market Shifts from Seller’s to Balanced Dynamics

The region’s housing supply currently stands at a 4.7-month inventory, a critical indicator suggesting a transition from a seller-driven market during the COVID-19 pandemic to a more balanced climate favoring both buyers and sellers.

“A 4.7-month supply is considered an ideal range for a balanced market, mitigating the urgency that typically fuels rapid price growth,” explains NEFAR market analysts.

Home Affordability Remains Challenging

The Home Affordability Index stayed constant at 66 in June, factoring in median income, interest rates, and home prices. An index below 100 indicates that typical families face difficulties affording median-priced homes, highlighting ongoing affordability challenges in Northeast Florida.

New Home Construction Permits Decline Substantially

Adding to market complexity, homebuilding permits have taken a hit:

• June Permits: 720 single-family home permits issued, a 17.6% decrease from May
• Year-over-Year Drop: Permits down 37% compared to June 2024
• First Half of 2025: Total permits at 2,393, down 36% from the same period in 2024

The Northeast Florida Builders Association attributes this downturn to various factors including rising construction costs and cautious builder sentiment.

County-Level Market Variability

Price and sales trends vary across counties, with some areas experiencing:

• Price reductions stressing local buyer resistance
• Price increases fueled by limited supply and strong demand pockets

For comprehensive details on county-specific data, reference the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market reports.

Key Takeaways:

• Median home prices stabilized but dipped 4% year-over-year
• Inventory levels reached their highest point in at least five years
• Closed and pending sales both declined, reflecting subdued buyer activity
• Market is transitioning toward balance, away from seller dominance
• Affordability remains a challenge with Home Affordability Index at 66
• New building permits decreased significantly, slowing housing supply growth
• Localized market disparities highlight uneven recovery and buyer preferences

For prospective homebuyers and sellers, these market conditions underscore the importance of strategic decision-making. Buyers may find more negotiating power as options grow, while sellers must be mindful of competitive pricing to attract offers.

Stay informed on Northeast Florida’s real estate trends by following the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors and consulting trusted local market analyses.

Sources:

• Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR)
• Northeast Florida Builders Association (NEFBA)
• National Association of Realtors: Housing Statistics
• Home Affordability Index