Florida’s once-booming housing market is showing signs of cooling, with projections indicating potential price declines in numerous areas by mid-2026. While not a widespread crash, this shift suggests a move towards a more balanced market, impacting both buyers and sellers.
Florida Housing Market Faces Potential Price Declines
Recent data suggests that approximately 24 Florida housing markets could experience a moderation in home prices by mid-2026. This adjustment is seen as a healthy recalibration after a period of unsustainable growth. While June 2025 saw a year-over-year increase in single-family home sales, the second quarter overall showed a slight decline, indicating a market in transition. Median sales prices for single-family homes dropped by 3.5% in June 2025 compared to the previous year, with condo prices seeing a sharper 7.7% decrease.
Factors Driving the Market Shift
Several key factors are contributing to this evolving landscape:
- Inventory: While the number of active listings has slightly decreased year-over-year, the months’ supply remains healthy, particularly for condos and townhouses, favoring buyers.
- Interest Rates: Higher mortgage rates continue to impact affordability, reducing demand and putting downward pressure on prices.
- Market Normalization: The market is transitioning towards a more balanced state, where motivated sellers who price realistically are attracting qualified buyers.
Markets to Watch for Price Moderation
Projections indicate that markets in Southwest Florida, such as Punta Gorda, North Port, and Cape Coral, may see more significant price adjustments. These areas experienced substantial price growth during the boom years. Other markets like Crestview, Tallahassee, and Panama City are also showing projected declines. Even major metropolitan areas like Jacksonville, Tampa, and Orlando are included in the forecast, albeit with more modest projected decreases.
| Florida Market | Projected Price Change (June 2026) |
|---|---|
| Punta Gorda, FL | -4.0% |
| North Port, FL | -3.2% |
| Cape Coral, FL | -2.9% |
| Crestview, FL | -2.6% |
| The Villages, FL | -2.4% |
Implications for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers, this cooling market presents potential opportunities for greater affordability and more choices. Patience and careful research are advised. Sellers, on the other hand, need to adjust their expectations, price homes accurately, and be prepared to negotiate. Working with experienced local real estate professionals is crucial for navigating these changing conditions.
Key Takeaways
- Approximately 24 Florida housing markets are projected to see price declines by mid-2026.
- Southwest Florida markets like Punta Gorda, North Port, and Cape Coral may experience more notable adjustments.
- Recent data indicates moderating prices and a market in transition, influenced by inventory levels and interest rates.
- Buyers may find more favorable conditions, while sellers need to adopt realistic pricing and negotiation strategies.
This period of moderation is viewed by many as a healthy adjustment, leading to a more stable and sustainable real estate market in the long run.
Sources
- 24 Florida Housing Markets Could See Home Prices Drop by Mid 2026, Norada Real Estate Investments.
- 5 Florida Housing Markets At Risk of a Major Price Decline or Crash, Norada Real Estate Investments.
- Why is Cape Coral Housing Market in Florida Doomed to Crash in 2025?, Norada Real Estate Investments.