Central Florida Home Values: A Two-Year Surge with Notable Exceptions

Home values across Central Florida have experienced a significant surge over the past two years, with Orange County leading the way. However, Osceola County stands out as an exception to this upward trend, highlighting the challenges homeowners face amid an unpredictable economic environment.

Overview of Home Value Trends

In an analysis conducted by the Orlando Sentinel in collaboration with the South Florida Sun Sentinel, data from Zillow reveals the following home value changes between March 2023 and March 2025:

• Orange County: Home values increased by 4%.
• Osceola County: Home values decreased by 0.58%.

This mixed trend in home values mirrors observations in other areas of South Florida, where slight dips are also recorded. According to a Zillow economist, values that surged rapidly during the pandemic are beginning to stabilize, prompting sellers to temper their expectations and adjust prices to attract buyers. Nevertheless, there are assurances from property appraisers that we are unlikely to see a market drop reminiscent of the Great Recession of 2008.

Key Factors Behind the Trends

• Demand: Orlando has become the second-strongest metro area for home values in Florida, following Miami. The high demand is partly due to a robust market for short-term rentals and second homes located near popular attractions like theme parks.

• Migration: "Orlando ranks among the top 10 cities in the U.S. for inbound migration," says Jared Jones, head of Jones Group Real Estate in Winter Garden. Many new residents are purchasing homes, contributing significantly to demand.

Opportunities in New Construction

Osceola County, while showing a decrease in home values, still possesses cities with considerable opportunities for new construction, including:

• St. Cloud: This area has potential for growth, offering buyers affordable new homes.
• Clermont, Mount Dora, and Groveland: Located in Lake County, these cities recorded a 1.42% increase in home values.

According to Ken Pozek, founder of The Pozek Group:

“Lake County was more affordable, especially over the past three to five years. People are anticipating future growth linked to connectivity developments like SR 516.”

Success Stories in Orange County

The strength of the real estate market is illustrated through personal success stories:

Stan Paynter, assistant chief of emergency medical services for the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District, recently sold his five-bedroom home in Ocoee for $839,900, just six days after listing it. This sale represented a significant profit, indicating the robust demand in Orange County’s real estate market.

Notable Increases in Nearby Communities

• Windermere (ZIP 34786): 7.02% increase in home values.
• Winter Park (ZIP 32789): 7.99% increase, known for its art scene and outdoor spaces.
• Seminole County: Experienced a 3.99% increase, with Geneva (ZIP 32732) seeing a striking 9.59% jump.

The Osceola County Dilemma

While most areas are thriving, Osceola County presents a different narrative:

• Decreased Values: The county saw an overall decline in home values, primarily driven by increased new construction. The rapid growth experienced in recent years is beginning to plateau.

• Harmony: Notably, this community experienced a 6.52% drop in home values amid rising supply.

Insights from Osceola County Officials

Katrina Scarborough, Osceola’s Property Appraiser, explains:

“The west side is reporting decreasing values, particularly in the tourist corridor. But I don’t anticipate a significant drop like we witnessed in 2008.”

• The area that saw the largest drop was ZIP 34747, home to the master-planned community of Celebration, which experienced an 8.89% decline in home values.

Understanding the Market Dynamics

The decline in Osceola’s home values can be attributed to various factors:

• Second Homes and Short-Term Rentals: Many properties in this region serve as second homes, making them more vulnerable during economic downturns.
• Motivated Sellers: Owners of secondary homes are more likely to sell at lower prices when financial pressures arise, further contributing to the decline.

Jones emphasizes the importance of observing the market’s performance during the peak real estate season:

“The real test will be over the next few months. Will we see a peak, or will values continue to slip?”

Conclusion

Central Florida’s housing market paints a complex picture, wherein demand thrives in several areas, yet some counties face challenges. Orange County’s resilience bodes well for homeowners, while Osceola County must navigate its unique obstacles. As the region transitions, staying informed about these evolving dynamics will be essential for buyers and sellers alike.