Brickell Condo Market Shows Signs of Recalibration, Not Retreat
The Brickell condo market is undergoing a significant recalibration, moving beyond initial assumptions of a slowdown. A mid-year review reveals a nuanced picture where inventory is increasing, but demand from end-users remains steady. Sellers are adjusting pricing strategies, and buyers are becoming more discerning, making property differentiation crucial for success.
Key Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers
- Expired Listings Surge: A notable number of listings are expiring across most price ranges, indicating that the market is absorbing inventory slowly, likely due to overpricing.
- Generous Seller Discounts: Sellers are becoming more realistic with pricing, offering more substantial discounts to attract buyers.
- Inventory Growth: Condo inventory is projected to increase by 17% in the next year, with approximately 4,500 new units under construction.
- Market Recalibration: While inventory is up, demand from end-users remains consistent. The market is adjusting rather than retreating.
- $3M–$6M Segment Thrives: This price range saw sales nearly double, with prices rising to approximately $1,290 per square foot and days on market decreasing significantly. However, most sales occur at about 86% of the original asking price.
- $1M–$3M Core Market: Despite fewer sales, prices have held steady or slightly increased, with properties selling faster (65 days on market). Well-positioned, renovated units continue to attract buyers.
- $6M–$10M Slowdown: This segment experienced the largest price appreciation (+44% to $1,642/SF) but also a significant slowdown in absorption, with days on market increasing from 15 to 103.
- Quality Remains Paramount: Top-tier buildings with superior design, management, and location continue to outperform, while dated properties face deeper discounts and longer listing times.
The Pre-Construction Condo Market Pipeline
Brickell’s pre-construction market is robust, with several high-profile projects nearing completion or in development. These new offerings are reshaping buyer expectations and influencing the resale market. Key projects include St. Regis Residences, 1428 Brickell, and Cipriani Residences, among others, with varying percentages of units sold and delivery dates extending into 2029.
Segment-Specific Market Analysis
The $1M to $3M Market: This remains the most active segment, characterized by value-driven transactions. While sales volume has decreased, average prices per square foot have seen a slight increase. Properties in this bracket are selling faster, with a median of 65 days on market. Sellers are advised to price thoughtfully and highlight renovations to stand out.
The $3M to $6M Market: This segment is gaining momentum, with sales nearly doubling and days on market dropping to 86. Sellers are advised to be realistic with pricing, as most properties sell at around 86% of the original asking price. Buyers benefit from increased inventory and negotiation leverage.
The $6M to $10M Market: This tier has seen significant price appreciation but also a notable slowdown in absorption. Increased supply from new developments is creating competition. Sellers need to focus on product quality, strategic positioning, and competitive pricing to attract buyers.
The $10M+ Market: This ultra-luxury segment is evolving, with new developments like St. Regis Residences and Mandarin Oriental setting new benchmarks. Resale units must offer unique attributes, superior design, and brand prestige to remain competitive.
Overall Market Outlook
The Brickell condo market is in a period of transition, not decline. Elevated inventory and more selective buyers are prompting price adjustments. However, steady demand from end-users, particularly for well-designed and quality properties, continues to support the market. Top-tier buildings maintain their appeal due to strong fundamentals, while older properties may require updates or face longer market times.