Florida’s housing market is showing promising signs of recovery and renewed momentum heading into 2026. After a period of cooling in 2025, factors such as declining mortgage rates, steady population growth, and a potential resurgence in international buyer activity are setting the stage for a more robust market.
Key Takeaways
- Single-family home sales saw a slight year-over-year increase in 2025, with pending sales showing consistent growth.
- Median prices are stabilizing, with modest increases anticipated in 2026.
- Inventory levels are returning to more normal seasonal patterns, offering buyers more choices.
- Easing mortgage rates are expected to improve affordability and stimulate buyer demand.
- International buyer interest, particularly from Canada and Latin America, is a significant supporting factor.
Positive Trends Emerge at Year’s End
As 2025 concluded, Florida’s housing market demonstrated positive momentum. Existing single-family home sales experienced a modest year-over-year increase, while inventory levels began to normalize. Statewide median prices showed signs of stabilization. Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor noted that a slowdown in homeowner insurance premium growth, coupled with a decrease in mortgage rates by over half a percentage point in the latter months of 2025, significantly boosted sales activity.
While existing condo and townhouse sales saw a year-over-year decline in 2025, partly due to new safety regulations and reserve requirements, these segments also ended the year with a positive growth streak in December. However, this late-year surge was not enough to offset earlier declines for the full year.
Market Stabilization and Future Outlook
Florida Realtors President Chuck Bonfiglio expressed optimism for a stronger, more sustainable housing market in 2026, benefiting both buyers and sellers. Inventory levels, though elevated, have seen a slowdown in growth, indicating a move towards a more balanced market. Local trends in areas like Charlotte County mirror this statewide picture, with softened sale prices expected to see modest increases as the market steadies.
Mortgage rates, a key factor influencing affordability, are forecast to continue their gradual decline. While not expected to return to historic lows, a modest decrease to around 6% in 2026 is anticipated, making homeownership more accessible. This, combined with steady job growth and persistent housing supply shortages nationwide, is expected to support continued price appreciation, with a projected 4% increase nationally in 2026.
International Buyers and Regional Dynamics
International buyers are playing a crucial role in supporting the Florida market. Fueled by the state’s appeal, international buyer dollar volume saw a significant increase in 2025. While South Florida remains a primary hub for these transactions, other regions like Tampa Bay and Southwest Florida are also attracting considerable interest, particularly from Canadian and European buyers. Canadians led international spending on Florida properties in 2025, marking a substantial increase from the previous year.
Despite challenges such as rising homeowner association fees impacting the condo market, the overall outlook for Florida’s housing market in 2026 is one of renewed momentum and stabilization. The combination of easing financial conditions and sustained demand suggests a positive trajectory for the Sunshine State’s real estate sector.
Sources
- Fla.’s 2025 Housing Market Ends on Positive Trends, | Florida Realtors.
- Florida housing market pauses in 2025, prepares for rebound | Real Estate, Gulfshore Business.
- Housing Market Set for 2026 Comeback, | Florida Realtors.
- Has the Florida housing market bottomed out?, WLRN.