Berkadia’s "Inside the Deal" podcast featured insights from industry veterans Mike Miner and Josh Bodin, who reviewed the commercial real estate (CRE) landscape of 2025 and offered a forecast for a more active 2026. The experts characterized 2025 as a "bumpy, busy, basics" year, with "basics" referring to fundamental economic principles like supply and demand.
Key Takeaways
- Transaction velocity is showing increased momentum heading into 2026 compared to early 2025.
- Private clients remain the most active buyers, leveraging flexible capital for opportunistic deals.
- The debt market is robust, with multifamily borrowers expected to have more options than ever in 2026.
- Lenders are exercising caution, focusing on strong sponsors and clear exit strategies.
- Owners are prioritizing operational rigor to drive occupancy, rents, and Net Operating Income (NOI).
A Look Back at 2025
Miner described 2025 as "bumpy, busy, basics," emphasizing that economic fundamentals will continue to shape the market. Bodin characterized the year as "active, selective, surprising," noting that capital sources were particular about their pursuits despite being active. Surprises largely stemmed from macroeconomic shifts, including yield curve fluctuations and tariff impacts.
Despite the challenges, deals are getting done with greater momentum as 2026 begins. Miner highlighted that while winning listings has become easier, closing deals requires more effort than ever. He observed a strong comeback in large portfolio and entity-level transactions, termed "AUM aggregation," but noted that private clients, with their discretionary capital, are leading the charge with more flexible and opportunistic underwriting.
Diverse Buyers and Evolving Debt Markets
2025 saw a more diverse buyer set, including separate managed accounts and non-traded REITs. Bodin pointed to a well-populated debt market, marked by a surge in securitized product issuance. A significant late-2025 development was the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s increase of multifamily caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by $15 billion each for 2026.
Traditional banks have become more selective in their direct lending, offering lower leverage and prioritizing strong sponsors with clear exit strategies. Bodin anticipates this cautious approach will continue into 2026, predicting a surge in debt availability across the board, particularly for multifamily borrowers who will have an unprecedented number of options.
Strategic Focus for Investors and Owners
Bodin described the current lending market as both deep and disciplined, with ample capital for multifamily but a strategic and thoughtful deployment by lenders. Investors are also sharpening their focus, particularly on post-acquisition asset management. Miner stated that owners are concentrating on "operational rigor," with a keen eye on occupancy, rents, and driving NOI.
This focus translates to specific property-level strategies, such as optimizing pricing and understanding the unique nuances of each asset within its submarket to position for rent increases. The podcast also touched upon specific sales transactions, renter demographics, investor fundraising and deployment strategies, and the influence of government policies.